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譯文（字?jǐn)?shù) 4995） 摘 要 商業(yè)周期（或經(jīng)濟(jì)周期）在學(xué)術(shù)上指的是在遵循自由企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)則的條件下，經(jīng)濟(jì)在生產(chǎn)、貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)上呈現(xiàn)的年或月的大幅度波動(dòng)。 商業(yè)周期的大小取決于GDP（國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值）水平的高低，具體指的是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)在長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)這一階段的擴(kuò)張和收縮。 圍繞長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)發(fā)生的這些波動(dòng)，并通常涉及在經(jīng)濟(jì)較快增長(zhǎng)期間（膨脹或繁榮），和時(shí)間的相對(duì)停滯或下降期間（收縮或衰退）。 商業(yè)周期通常是通過考慮國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)際生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率來判斷。雖然被稱為周期，但是這些經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的波動(dòng)規(guī)律并不是按照一個(gè)機(jī)械的或可預(yù)見的周期模式去變動(dòng)。
外文原文（字符數(shù) 18179） Introduction The term business cycle (or economic cycle) refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production, trade and economic activity in general over several months or years in an economy organized on free-enterprise principles. The business cycle is the upward and downward movements of levels of GDP (gross domestic product) and refers to the period of expansions and contractions in the level of economic activities (business fluctuations) around its long-term growth trend. These fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend, and typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (an expansion or boom), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (a contraction or recession). Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic product. Despite being termed cycles, these fluctuations in economic activity do not follow a mechanical or predictable periodic pattern. |
