需要金幣： 1000 個(gè)金幣 |
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| 轉(zhuǎn)換比率：金額 X 10=金幣數(shù)量， 例100元=1000金幣 | 論文字?jǐn)?shù)：11950 |  | |
| 折扣與優(yōu)惠：團(tuán)購(gòu)最低可5折優(yōu)惠 - 了解詳情 | 論文格式：Word格式(*.doc) |  |
摘 要:電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)在電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行和調(diào)度中起著非常重要的作用，可以經(jīng)濟(jì)合理的安排電網(wǎng)內(nèi)部發(fā)電機(jī)組的啟停，保持電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行的安全穩(wěn)定性，減少不必要的旋轉(zhuǎn)儲(chǔ)備容量；合理安排機(jī)組檢修計(jì)劃，保證社會(huì)的正常生產(chǎn)和生活，有效降低發(fā)電成本，提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益；在目前國(guó)內(nèi)電力事業(yè)空前的發(fā)展前提下，用電管理走向市場(chǎng)，這就對(duì)電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的預(yù)測(cè)模型提出了更高的要求。 本文在眾多預(yù)測(cè)方法中，著重介紹并比較了隨機(jī)時(shí)間序列法和灰色預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)兩種預(yù)測(cè)方法。由于灰色預(yù)測(cè)具有負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)少、不考慮分布規(guī)律、不考慮變化趨勢(shì)、運(yùn)算方便、易于檢驗(yàn)等優(yōu)點(diǎn)，同時(shí)結(jié)合所收集到的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，本文主要采用灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)。并通過(guò)MATLAB軟件對(duì)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行仿真分析。仿真預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了該方法對(duì)于負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的合理性和可行性。 關(guān)鍵詞：電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè) 電力系統(tǒng) matlab 灰色預(yù)測(cè)
ABSTRACT:Power load forecasting in power system operation and scheduling plays a very important role in the grid can be economically reasonable arrangements for the internal generator set start and stop, maintaining security and stability of power system operation and reduce unnecessary rotating reserve capacity; reasonable arrangements for unit maintenance plan to ensure normal production and life of society, reduce electricity costs, improve economic and social benefits; unprecedented in the current development of the domestic power industry under the premise of power management to the market, which the predictive power load forecasting model proposed higher requirements. In this paper, a number of prediction methods, highlighting and comparing the stochastic time series forecasting techniques two kinds of method and gray prediction method. As Grey has less load forecast data, without considering distribution, without regard to trends, computing, easy inspection, etc., combined with the collected data load forecasting, this paper mainly adopts the gray prediction model load forecasting. And through the load forecasting software MATLAB simulation analysis. Simulation results validate the prediction method for load forecasting rationality and feasibility. Keywords: power load forecasting;electric system;matlab;grey prediction |
